Due to limited production, Europe has long been dependent on natural gas imports from other countries, with the largest volumes of EU gas traditionally flowing from Russia. According to S&P Global Platts Analytics latest long-term forecast, Russia will remain the dominant supplier of gas to Europe, with its market share growing over the next decade.
Although the EU has taken successive steps in recent years and decades to reduce its dependence on Russian gas supplies, for example by promoting gas imports from Azerbaijan or developing import infrastructure (LNG), gas supplies from Russia are large for European consumers due to low production and transmission costs.
“By 2035, we expect a record market share of 38% in Russia,” S&P Global Platts Analytics says in its forecast.
According to Platts Analytics, gas supplies from Russia via pipelines to countries in the north-western, central and eastern Europe and Italy should increase from around 130 bcm last year to 150 bcm. By 2040, gas supplies from Norway should gradually drop due to the decline in the country’s gas production. While Norway currently supplies 110 bcm to Europe each year, Platts expects that to fall to 100 billion by 2025 and to just 60 billion by 2040.
In addition to pipeline supplies from Russia, imports of liquefied gas should also increase. According to the Platts forecast, they should reach 90 bcm by 2025 per year, and by 2030 – 130 bcm. LNG imports are then expected to fall to 100 billion cubic metres in 2040.
Overall, it is estimated that Russia’s gas production will rise from around 650 bcm in 2020 to 750 bcm in 2025, and then more slowly to 810 bcm in 2040.
“Europe’s reluctance to increase its dependence on Russian gas and demand risks related to transformation of the energy sector provide sufficient incentives for Russia to diversify its export portfolio,” S&P Global Platts Analytics reports.
By Martin Chomsky (photo: press materials)